In the last newsletter, I laid out the four factors that I believe will cause fossil fuel cars to become obsolete in the next forty years or less: geopolitics, the refinery crunch, the increased cost of extraction, and the water crisis. Climate change is the fifth, overarching factor that only makes the other four worse.

You can argue about the trajectory of any one factor, but it is all the factors, working together, simultaneously, that will cause the slow but eventual extinction of the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Assuming you consider forty years to be slow.

By and large, these issues are systemic and structural to the oil industry, meaning they cannot be changed quickly or without a great investment of capital that is unlikely to produce a good return on investment. This is not a terribly controversial opinion. The oil industry itself is the source of much of the information I laid out.

The question I want to address in this newsletter is: if the end of fossil fuel cars is inevitable in the coming decades, what’s the smartest way for you to navigate the car conundrum?

What’s the conundrum?

Knowing the urgency that I and pretty much every scientist thinks is required to address climate change, you might think the answer is simple: everyone should buy an electric vehicle (EV) as soon as possible! But there are several large impediments to that approach:

1. Not everyone can afford an EV right now, especially in the U.S., where there’s a lack of low-cost models and government subsidies
2. Lithium ion batteries require a huge amount of water and energy to produce—we won’t be able to swap every ICE vehicle for an EV if we don’t find a replacement for lithium-ion batteries
3. Infrastructure—the electrical grid, number of charging stations, etc.—isn’t ready for immediate global adoption, although some countries are far more prepared than others

The conundrum thus stems from the requirement to transition away from ICE vehicles as soon as possible (globally, transportation produces roughly 17% of all greenhouse gas emissions, so it’s not small) versus some very real obstacles at both the individual and technological levels. I’ll discuss those in detail in the next section.

Something I can’t harp on enough is that all of this is infinitely more difficult because we are asking people to largely fund this transition themselves rather than governments, philanthropic organizations, or the oil industry itself. I won’t lie, that burns in me a righteous fury.

That funding burden matters because there will be steep penalties for waiting too long to switch from an ICE vehicle to an alternative (the alternatives include more than just EVs!). ICE vehicles will eventually lose their value—devastating for those who struggle financially to buy a new vehicle as it is. Every additional ton of greenhouse gases emitted makes global warming worse, with all the devastation and loss that comes with it.

It’s impossible to know what the timeline will look like, but you shouldn’t mistake that uncertainty for “so far in the future it won’t impact me.” Perhaps my only bit of optimism is that as the pain of failing to transition faster becomes more immediate and widespread, maybe that funding burden will eventually shift back where it belongs. As just one example, imagine the collapse of the restaurant and hospitality industry as low wage workers can no longer justify the cost of gas required for their long commutes from the edges of big cities. It’s hard to imagine businesses and governments won’t step to prevent that from happening, but who knows.

My goal is to help you see the trade-offs you need to weigh within the constraints that are specific to your situation. This means the right decision isn’t the same for everyone. If I’m successful, you’ll have a logical way of approaching the car conundrum, even if you don’t like the answers.

How EVs are changing … fast

Before I get into how to personally navigate your car conundrum, I want to talk about the huge advances in battery technology that are already taking place and how that might change the EV market.

Newer EVs already boast ranges up to 400 miles when fully charged and charging speeds under thirty minutes. Kelley Blue Book says these new batteries have a lifespan of 15 to 20 years, although high speed charging does reduce battery life. Since “nearly 75% of daily U.S. trips are less than 50 miles, and 96% are less than 125 miles,” my recommendation is to use slow charging for everyday driving (we plug our EV into a normal outlet in our garage), limiting high speed charging to longer distances that exceed the range of a single battery charge.

This means that newer EV models now have comparable ranges and lifespans to traditional ICE vehicles. And consumers should expect those numbers to continue to improve. However, there are two other EV technologies that are important to keep an eye on:

Vehicle-to-home (V2H) bidirectional charging: One of the great things about an EV is that it offers the possibility of energy independence. You can put solar panels on your roof to charge your car for “free”. Some cars also offer the possibility of charging your home in a power outage, essentially turning your car battery into a backup generator. Because a car battery can store five to ten times more energy than the standard battery bank, it can power devices in your home for days during a power outage rather than hours.

Several cars on the market already offer this, but it currently requires a separately purchased (and expensive) charging system be installed in your home and connected to your electrical panel. Nearly all the automakers say they are exploring bidirectional charging capabilities with future models, but Ford has just announced a way to make the technology cheaper by incorporating it into the car itself, rather than the charger. I expect this technology to become standard within the next several years and it will be a key component for creating climate resilience.

Alternatives to lithium batteries: Although lithium ion batteries have achieved some impressive capabilities, there are some issues. In the first generation of cars, there were concerns about flammability, but multiple studies have shown that lithium ion batteries are now seven to ten times less likely to catch fire than ICE vehicles. Firefighters have also adapted and have more effective ways of putting these fires out.

My real concerns regarding lithium based batteries are two-fold: 1) they are difficult to recycle, and 2) the large amount of water required for mining the metal. Water is the resource I’m most worried about as the planet continues to warm (you’ll recall I shared a report in the last newsletter where UN scientists warned we’re entering “an era of global water bankruptcy”).

Fortunately, two alternatives to lithium ion batteries are either in production or development. The first is sodium ion batteries, which are cheaper to produce, far more environmentally sustainable, and have none of the flammability issues of lithium ion batteries. Although sodium ion batteries are already being piloted in a limited number of EVs, they currently don’t come close to the weight, energy density, and lifespan of lithium ion batteries.

The other alternative is a solid state battery. These batteries are still under development, but early candidates appear to solve the energy density and charging cycle issues of sodium ion batteries. Toyota, for example, has an experimental solid state battery that provides 20% more range and fully charges in under 15 minutes. Unfortunately, they have yet to be manufactured at scale and the earliest we will likely see them on the market is 2028. According to BMW, who has also worked on the technology, it could be closer to 2035.

It will probably take several years before we know if alternatives to lithium ion batteries can provide the price, range, charging speeds, and lifespan that consumers are looking for. Or perhaps better recycling technology for lithium ion batteries will make the existing batteries more environmentally sustainable in the long term.

What is clear is that we can’t swap ICE vehicles for EVs relying on lithium ion batteries globally at scale, which could leave those who wait too long to switch without any good options. There’s no way for me to know what “too long” means at this point, but my suggestion is to find your way to an EV or an alternative within the next five years to be safe, but definitely within the next ten years. So no need to panic, but definitely a need to plan.

The decision matrix

Finally we get to the question of what all this means for you.

Broadly speaking, how you choose to approach the car conundrum will depend on your level of disposable income and the urgency with which you need to replace your current ICE vehicle, as shown in the decision matrix below. I’m using the word “urgency” here to indicate someone who genuinely needs a new car within the next several months, because their current one is either unreliable, not suited to their current needs, or requires repairs that are more expensive than the car is worth.

Let’s look at each of these scenarios, using some fictional characters from The Lord of the Rings, and I’ll explain how and why the recommended solution differs for each one.

Galadriel, 82 years old, high disposable income, low urgency

Living in New York City, Galadriel mainly relies on public transportation and ride shares. She still drives a reliable, older car for long drives to visit family a few times a year. Due to health issues, she’s not sure how much longer she may be driving.

Recommendation: Given that she rarely drives except for longer distances, her best option is to just keep the current ICE vehicle and sell it when she decides to stop driving.

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​Denethor, 43 years old, high disposable income, low urgency

Although his wife already drives an EV for errands in their suburban neighborhood, Denethor is still driving his Range Rover for his high traffic commute. He can afford the higher gas prices, but the car he used to love is starting to feel like an albatross around his neck.

Recommendation: If he really loves the car, Denethor might exchange the Range Rover for an EV version, with the expectation he’ll want to upgrade again within the next five to ten years as better features become available. Or he can pay a little more for an EV that already offers bidirectional charging, like the Cadillac Escalade IQ.

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​Arwen, 32 years old, moderate disposable income, high urgency

Although she technically could take the city’s public transit to work, she can cut her commute time in half by driving her Mini Cooper--and the size means she always finds good parking options. But now that she has twins on the way, the Mini won’t work with her new lifestyle.

Recommendation: Time and money will be at a premium once the twins arrive, and it will be difficult to optimize for both. She could try going car free and fully relying on public transit, but that leaves less time for home life. If she can afford it along with all the other expenses, she could also look for a used compact EV—small enough to still find parking but also enough room for a family of four, something like a Volvo EX30 or Hyundai Kona EV. Or, given that she doesn’t have to travel very far, she could use the money that would have gone towards an EV to defray the cost of a nanny while the twins are little, then invest in a much cheaper cargo e-bike that lets her transport the twins to school and herself to work.

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​Gimli, 55 years old, low disposable income, low urgency

When diesel prices first went up, Gimli wan’t worried. He’d operated his plumbing business out of his Sprinter van for over 20 years, although the Covid shutdown had exhausted much of his savings. With other costs like healthcare skyrocketing, if he didn’t see relief at the pump soon, he’d have to raise prices significantly, probably losing business to larger companies that could better absorb the increased costs. Or he’d have to consider the unthinkable: shutting down the business.

Recommendation: Although he could probably get a job with a larger plumbing company, given his experience, he’d almost certainly take a pay cut. He might consider temporarily moving in with family or taking on roommates to decrease his housing costs, allowing him to save up the downpayment for a Mercedes-Benz eSprinter and keep the business going in the meantime.

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​Frodo, 31 years old, low disposable income, high urgency

Living in a small, rural town, Frodo uses his pickup truck a lot to get to various agricultural job sites throughout the county. The vehicle has 150,000 miles on it and needs new tires before winter. He has money for new tires, but doesn’t think it makes sense to put that money into a vehicle that could require major repairs at any time. But he can’t afford a new car either.

Recommendation: Frodo already shares a trailer with a roommate, so he can’t save much more in living expenses. In the short term, he might try carpooling with his co-worker Merry, hopefully extending the life of his truck and allowing him to save money to buy a used ICE vehicle. In the longer term, increasing gas prices will eat into wages, making his current living situation unsustainable. An EV isn’t an option due to high costs, low availability in his area, and lack of access to a charger. One possibility is to look for contract farm work that provides transportation to the job sites, even though that would mean even lower wages than what he makes now. Or he could explore job opportunities in an area with better public transportation that might allow Frodo to live car free, even if that means jobs in a completely new field.

Key Takeaways

The big thing I hope you take away is that this is a massive societal change that’s already underway, and we are having to do it faster than any previous major energy transition. That means there are limited options and a limited window of opportunity to act, five to ten years maybe, before you’re in a mad rush with the masses to figure out how to navigate the eventual loss of fossil fuel cars.

I’ve taken a particularly American perspective in the examples I’ve used, primarily because we are a very large country which generally lacks the infrastructure for public transit and is now preventing access to cheaper EVs that are available in the rest of the world—a situation that puts those with limited income in an impossible situation. The consequences of those policy and funding choices will be felt throughout the economy. If you have the opportunity to vote for increased funding for public transit in your community this election cycle, please do so!

You’ll probably need to play out different, worst case scenarios to see what works best in your situation. And what’s best still may not be desirable. The question is not just whether or not you can afford an EV now. You also have to ask: What if gas hits $10/gallon? What if one or more gas stations in your area shut down? What if there’s gas rationing and it’s not enough for your commute? Could you move and/or change occupations to give yourself more options, even if that change is several years down the road? Could engineer your situation so that you can get by without a car at all?

I really wish I could give you answers instead of questions. I realize it’s a lot to investigate these kinds of questions deeply enough to see how you might realistically make different options work. But you’ll be glad you put the effort in ahead of time, I can promise you that.

Mostly I wish our society would wake up and realize we have no hope of successfully navigating the energy transition unless we also address income inequality, whether that’s through increased taxes, universal basic income, philanthropic efforts, or government subsidies. Ideally all of those and probably a bunch more. Personally, I’m not only thinking about my own transition, but how I can help others in my community navigate the transition as well.

Much of what we’re doing here is making calculated bets, and we’re having to do that as the world rapidly changes around us. Better charging infrastructure will hopefully be built. Our electrical grid build out will hopefully provide all the power people need, for things like EVs and air conditioning, instead of data centers. If we’re lucky, we’ll succeed in developing new alternatives to lithium ion batteries that still offer the ranges, lifetimes, and charging times we’re used to.

One thing I think we all need to do, regardless of one’s current disposable income, is to create a climate savings plan. I know this particular moment, when the cost of food and housing and utilities and healthcare is only going up, isn’t a great time.

But I would be remiss if I didn’t tell you, with earnestness and a good deal of sorrow, what I think will be required to meet this moment. Do what you can to prepare yourself. To create options. And above all, to help each other.

P.S. There was SO MUCH I couldn’t fit into this newsletter. If you have questions or want my take on your personal situation, just reply to this email. I’m happy to give you my non-expert opinion or at the very least, share some additional stories of how real people I know are handling this.